NHL Hot and Cold: Ducks Win 7 Straight, Avalanche Rolling

The NHL season hit its stride in late January, producing some remarkable streaks and performances that bettors should be tracking closely as we head into the final stretch. From unexpected winning runs to individual milestones that signal market inefficiencies, this month offered valuable lessons for hockey wagering.

The Anaheim Ducks: Hockey's Hottest Team

The Anaheim Ducks have become January's biggest story, riding a 7-game winning streak that has completely transformed their season and playoff odds. What makes this run remarkable isn't just the winning—it's how they're doing it and who's leading the charge.

Rookie sensation Beckett Sennecke has been the catalyst, recording 12 points during the streak including two overtime game-winners. His OT heroics against Calgary (completing a hat trick) was the signature moment, but it's his consistent production that should interest bettors.

Before this streak, the Ducks were +800 to make the playoffs at most books. That number has now shortened to +350—and it may still have room to tighten. The underlying numbers support continued success: Anaheim's expected goals percentage sits at 53.2% over their last 15 games, suggesting their winning isn't just luck or hot shooting.

Ducks Betting Angles: Where's the Value?

From a betting perspective, the most profitable angle this month has been targeting the Ducks in the first period. During their winning streak, Anaheim has scored first in six of seven games, establishing early leads and playing with confidence.

The first-period moneyline has returned +18.3 units if you'd backed Anaheim blindly during this stretch. More importantly, their first-period +0.5 puck line (effectively double chance: win first period or tie going to second) has cashed in all seven games.

This isn't random variance. The Ducks have adjusted their line combinations to stack their first period with offensive firepower, betting on scoring early and then deploying their strong defensive structure to protect leads. It's working beautifully, and the market hasn't fully caught up to this tactical shift.

Looking ahead, continue backing Anaheim in first-period markets until the book adjusts the lines. The current first-period ML is still around +120 for the Ducks in most matchups—far too generous given their recent performance and strategic emphasis on fast starts.

Colorado Avalanche: MacKinnon's Historic Pace

In Colorado, Nathan MacKinnon reached the 50-assist mark in just 48 games, the fastest pace in the league and putting him on track for a potential Art Ross Trophy (awarded to the league's leading scorer). This individual brilliance has coincided with team success—the Avalanche went 6-1 at Ball Arena in January with a goal differential of +14.

MacKinnon's production isn't the only notable factor—it's where Colorado is scoring. They've become dominant at home, averaging 4.3 goals per game at altitude while allowing just 2.3. That +2.0 goal differential is elite and creates a clear betting opportunity.

Avalanche Home Overs: A Profitable Pattern

For Colorado home games, the play has been crystal clear: bet the over. Their last eight home contests have gone over the total, with an average combined score of 7.2 goals. The market has been slow to adjust, with totals still being set around 6.5 for many Avalanche home games.

The reasons are clear: altitude affects visiting teams more than numbers suggest, Colorado's offensive depth creates scoring throughout the lineup, their power play is lethal at home (32% conversion rate at Ball Arena), and opposing teams feel pressured to keep pace, opening up defensively.

This pattern should continue. Until the market adjusts totals to 7 or higher for Avalanche home games, backing the over remains a positive expected value play. Even when books do adjust, look for value in first-period overs and team totals rather than full-game totals.

The MacKinnon Prop Market

Player props for MacKinnon have also presented value. His points prop is typically set around 1.5, with over paying -150 or steeper. That line is actually fair based on his production, but the real value is in multi-point props.

MacKinnon has recorded 2+ points in 58% of his home games this season. Books typically price his 2+ points prop around +180 to +200, which implies just a 33-35% probability. That's a 23-point edge, representing huge value for patient prop bettors.

Combine MacKinnon 2+ points with Avalanche team total over 3.5 goals in same-game parlays for even better odds. These correlated outcomes boost profitability when Colorado's offense clicks at home.

Ottawa Senators: The Fade Continues

On the cold side, the Ottawa Senators continue to struggle, losing five straight in late January and falling below the playoff line. For bettors, the Senators have become a reliable fade—but it's important to understand why, so you know when the trend might reverse.

Their underlying numbers are alarming. Ottawa's expected goals share sits at just 42% over their losing streak—league-worst during that span. This isn't bad luck or poor shooting percentage; they're being consistently outplayed.

The goaltending has been particularly weak, with Ottawa's tandem posting a combined .882 save percentage during the slide. For context, league average is typically around .905. That 23-point gap represents roughly one extra goal allowed per game—often the difference between winning and losing.

Fading Ottawa: Strategic Approach

Blindly fading losing teams can be dangerous because lines adjust quickly. However, Ottawa presents a special case where the market hasn't fully adjusted because of their earlier-season success and name recognition of their young stars.

The smart fade strategy: target the Senators as road underdogs. Their away record is abysmal (8-17-2) and getting worse. Books are still setting lines based on their roster talent rather than actual road performance, creating consistent value fading them.

Specifically, look for spots where Ottawa is getting +130 or better on the road. In these games, their expected win probability based on metrics is closer to 30%, but the line implies 43%. That 13-point gap is exploitable.

Also consider fading Ottawa in puck line markets when they're moderate underdogs (+1.5 at -180 or worse). They're losing games by multiple goals consistently, and even when they keep it close, they rarely push games to overtime or one-goal margins lately.

Other Notable January Trends

**Florida Panthers' Third-Period Dominance**: The Panthers outscored opponents 14-3 in third periods during January. Look for value in third-period ML and puck lines when Florida is leading or tied going to the final frame.

**Pittsburgh's Winning Streak**: The Penguins won four straight late in January, with young forward Ben Kindel emerging as a scoring threat. His points prop is still set too low (0.5 at -115), creating over value while he's playing in a top-six role.

**New York Islanders' Goaltending**: Ilya Sorokin's return from injury has stabilized the Isles. In his four starts since returning, the under has hit all four times. His save percentage is back over .920, and the team is playing defensive-minded hockey in front of him.

**Vegas Golden Knights Struggles**: Vegas lost three straight, getting outscored 16-5. Their defensive metrics cratered in January (allowing 3.8 goals per game). Consider fading them as road favorites until they stabilize defensively.

NHL Betting Strategy: Rest of Season Outlook

As we look toward February and March, here's how to approach NHL betting based on January's lessons:

**Ride momentum but understand why it exists**: The Ducks' success is backed by strong metrics, not just hot shooting. That's sustainable. Contrast with teams winning despite poor underlying numbers—those trends reverse quickly.

**Home/road splits matter more in hockey than other sports**: The Avalanche's home dominance and Senators' road struggles illustrate this. Don't treat teams as monolithic—break down performance by location.

**Goaltending drives totals more than the market prices**: When elite goalies get hot (Sorokin) or cold (Ottawa's tandem), adjust total expectations faster than the market does.

**First-period betting offers edges**: Teams with tactical advantages in deployment (like Anaheim) create first-period value that persists longer than full-game value because books adjust more slowly.

**Player props on young breakout players lag reality**: Sennecke and Kindel's props are still set based on their season averages, not recent production and role changes. Jump on these before books adjust.

Playoff Race Implications

From a futures perspective, January's action has significantly reshaped playoff odds:

**Anaheim to make playoffs (+350)**: Value remains. Their metrics support continued competitiveness, and they have a favorable schedule ahead with several games against teams below them in the standings.

**Colorado to win Stanley Cup (+650)**: Soft line given their home dominance and MacKinnon's historic season. They're built for playoff success with their offensive firepower and goaltending tandem.

**Ottawa to miss playoffs (-140)**: Not enough value despite their struggles. The line has already adjusted significantly, and there's too much season left for this to be attractive at current odds.

**Florida to win Atlantic Division (+200)**: Solid value. Their third-period dominance suggests strong underlying roster quality, and they're just three points back with games in hand.

Advanced Metrics to Watch

For the analytically-minded bettor, here are the key metrics that predicted January's trends and should guide February betting:

**xG% (Expected Goals Percentage)**: Teams consistently above 52% typically win more than their record suggests. The Ducks are in this category.

**High-danger save percentage**: When goalies sustain .850+ on high-danger chances, bet overs against them. When they're .900+, bet unders. Ottawa's .823 in this category explained their struggles before betting markets fully adjusted.

**Offensive zone time percentage**: Colorado leads the league in ozone time at home (58.3%), explaining their dominant home scoring. Teams controlling offensive zone time eventually score, even when shooting percentages are unlucky.

**Power play conversion rate trends**: Teams with improving PP% over rolling 10-game windows often see overall scoring increase. Track this for team totals and overs.

Bottom Line: Exploiting January Patterns

The NHL season's middle stretch is where patterns emerge that the market is slow to price accurately. The Ducks' tactical adjustment to offensive first periods, the Avalanche's home dominance driven by altitude and elite talent, and Ottawa's underlying weakness all created profitable betting opportunities for those paying attention.

As February approaches, continue to track these trends but remain flexible. Hockey's long season means nothing is permanent. The Ducks could cool off, Ottawa could stabilize with goaltending improvement, and Colorado could face tougher home competition.

But until the market fully adjusts or the trends reverse based on metrics (not just results), these patterns remain exploitable. Bet the numbers, not the narratives—and let others chase yesterday's stories while you profit from today's edges.